T.S.#ERIKA #Florida in the cone of Uncertainty; Warnings issued in the Caribbean

Tropical Storm Erika Strengthens, Where Is It Headed?
Tropical storm warnings are in effect for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The storm strengthens and has a track of uncertainty. More live webcams can be found at Earthcam.com 

 
 
Tropical Storm Erika is currently about 195 miles east of Antigua.
  • Tropical storm warnings have been expanded as far west as Puerto Rico, including the Virgin Islands and most of the northern Leeward Islands.
  • Erika is expected to remain a tropical storm with little change in strength the next few days as it moves quickly to the west-northwest. 
  • The northern Leeward Islands may feel tropical storm-force winds by later tonight.
  • Erika will then bring more rain to drought-suffering Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands and tropical storm-force winds Thursday and Thursday night.
  • Erika's future track and intensity beyond Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands remains uncertain, and may involve a track near the Bahamas this weekend and possibly parts of the Florida peninsula and the Southeast coast early next week. 
Erika is then forecast to spread rain and wind into drought-suffering areas, such as Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands Thursday into Thursday night, with some rainbands potentially moving in as soon as Thursday morning.
In general, a swath of 3-5 inches of rain is possible over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, with locally higher amounts, through Friday afternoon. Despite the long-term drought, this amount of rain, particularly if falling in a short period of time, may trigger flash flooding and mud/rockslides. 
Erika's Possible Steering Pattern Ahead
                                   
Erika's Possible Steering Pattern Ahead
Possible upper-level steering pattern if Erika survives into the Bahamas this weekend into the following week.
An Uncertain Future: Bahamas, U.S. Threat?

Beyond that, the forecast has a large amount of uncertainty, due to a potential track over land in the Caribbean, interaction with the aforementioned wind shear and dry air, as well as the nature of the upper-level steering flow near the eastern U.S. next week.
First up, Erika needs to survive the hostile environment over the eastern Caribbean the next few days. There is a chance Erika may not survive it, degenerating into a tropical wave like its predecessor, Danny.
 
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